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PTT analyst meeting

PTT analyst meeting key takeaways:

  • PTT, Thailand’s top energy firm forecasts that oil prices will range between US$60 and US$70 per barrel in 2H09. Oil is also expected to be relatively volatile amid uncertainty over economic recovery.
  • GRM is anticipated to remain weak at US$2-4/barrel in 2H09.
  • New capacity due to come on stream later this year could drag petrochemical product prices lower in 2H09.
  • Major investment projects remain unchanged: (1) construction of a sixth gas separation plant with a total capacity of 1.84m tons expected to start operation in 1Q10; (2) an ethane separation plant through capacity expansion of the second and third gas separation plants with a total capacity of 0.763m tons scheduled to start operation in 1Q10; (3) construction of a LNG receiving terminal to accommodate up to 5m tons of LNG expected to be completed in 3Q11; and (4) construction of the first phase of the fourth gas transmission pipeline expected to be completed in 2Q11 and the second phase in 2014.
  • Sale of NGV at below costs will be subsidized by the state Oil Fund at Bt300m/month.
  • The results of the merger plan are expected to come out in 4Q09. There is likelihood that its four subsidiaries will not be merged at the same time.
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